In
this educational feature, I'm going to tackle an issue about which
several of my readers have inquired: How to determine support and
resistance areas on the charts.
My
favorite method (and I believe this the most accurate method) of
determining support and resistance levels is to look at a bar chart
and its past price history and then see at what price levels the
highs, lows and closes seem to be touching the most. This method of
determining support and resistance levels works on any bar chart
timeframe--hourly, daily, weekly or monthly. Many times a bunch of
highs or lows will be concentrated in a small price area, but not at
one specific price. If that's the case, I will determine that area
to be a support or resistance "zone." The one thing I will
point out with determining support and resistance zones is that you
don't want your zone to be so wide that it's virtually useless from
a trading standpoint.
Major
price tops and bottoms in markets are also major resistance and
support levels. Unfilled price gaps on charts also qualify as very
good support and resistance levels. Trendline support and resistance
is also very useful to the trader. Projecting these trendlines to
determine future support and resistance areas is extremely
effective.
It's
important to note that when a key support level or zone is
penetrated on the downside, that level or zone will likely become
key resistance. Likewise, a key resistance level or zone that is
penetrated on the upside will then likely become a key support level
or zone.
Another
way to discover support or resistance areas is by looking at "retracements"
of a significant price move--price moves that are counter to an
existing price trend. These moves are also called
"corrections." For example, let's say a market is in a
solid uptrend. That uptrend began at the 100 price level and prices
rallied to 200. But then prices backed off to 150, only to then turn
around and continue to rally higher. This would be considered a 50%
retracement of the move from 100 to 200. The 150 level proved to be
solid support. In other words, the 50% retracement level proved to
be a solid support level because prices dropped by 50% and then
moved back higher. The same holds true for downtrends and
"corrections" to the upside.
There
are a few retracement percentages that work well at determining
support and resistance levels. They are as follows: 33%, 50% and
67%. There are also two other numbers called Fibonacci numbers.
(Fibonacci was a mathematician.) Those numbers are 38% and 62%. So,
these five numbers are the best at determining retracement support
and resistance levels. Most of the better trading software packages
have these five percentages calculated in a tool, so that all you
have to do, for example, is click your mouse at the beginning of the
price trend and then at a high, and the percentage retracements are
laid out right on a price chart.
Still
another way that support and resistance levels can be identified is
through geometric angles from a certain key price point. W.D. Gann,
a legendary stock and commodity trader who died in 1955, is the most
noted proponent of this method. He also used the same five numbers
to calculate his angles. Again, the better trading software will
provide "Gann fans" to plot the angles on the charts.
Finally,
support and resistance levels for markets can be determined by
"psychological" price levels. These are usually round
numbers that are very significant in a market. For example, in crude
oil, a psychological price level would be $20 per barrel, or $25, or
$30. In soybeans, a price of $5.00 or $6.00 or $4.00 would be a
psychological level. In cotton, 50 cents would qualify. Silver would
be $5.00.
There
are other methods traders use to determine support and resistance
levels, but those mentioned above are the most popular.
Jim Wyckoff is the chief technical and market analyst for FutureSource.
Phone: 319.277.8643
Email: jim@jimwyckoff.com
Website: www.jimwychoff.com |