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Okay,
traders: Do you know what is the most important aspect of
successful futures trading? Is it identifying the trading
opportunity? Is it proper entry into the market? Is it the trading
"tools" you are using? Is it an exit strategy that is the
most important aspect of trading? The answer is: None of the
above (although an exit strategy is close).
The
most important factor in successful futures trading is money
management. One still has to be savvy at chart forecasting
and-or fundamental analysis, but it's the money management factor
that will make or break a futures trader. The huge leverage involved
with trading futures absolutely requires pinpoint money managing.
Over
the years, I have listened to the best traders in the business talk
about what makes them succeed in this challenging arena, and nearly
every one emphasizes the importance of sound money management. Just
last fall, I attended a TAG (Technical Analysis Group) trader's
conference in Las Vegas. One of the featured speakers stressed that
becoming a successful futures trader should be more an act of
survival in the early going than scoring winning trades.
Surviving
in the futures market absolutely requires practicing sound money
management. Even a rookie trader who starts out with a hot hand
will eventually find that at least some trades are not going to go
his way. And if he has not employed good money management principles
on those losing trades, he will likely have squandered his trading
profits and his entire trading account.
Conversely,
the novice trader who uses good, conservative money management
techniques will be able to withstand some losses and be able to
trade another day. The ability to take a loss and trade another
day is the key to survival--and ultimate success-- in the futures
trading arena.
Here's
an important point to consider, regarding money management and
successful futures trading: Most successful futures traders will
tell you that during the span of a year they have more losing trades
than winning trades. Then why are they successful? Because of good
money management. Successful traders set tight stops to get out of
losing positions quickly; and they let the winners ride out the
trend. On the balance sheet, a few big winning trades will more than
offset the more numerous small losers. Good money management allows
for that to happen.
"Good
money management" is a relative principle. A good money-
management practice for one trader might not be a good money-
management practice for another. Here's a real-life example: I had a
fellow email me recently, saying he was up $3,000 in a sugar trade,
and that his total trading account was $4,000. Although I don't
provide specific trading advice, I told the trader that if I had
only a $4,000 trading account and had racked up 3 grand in profits
on one trade, I would think about building up my account so that I
could withstand those drawdowns and losers that will eventually
occur.
On
the other hand, if a trader with a $30,000 account had a $3,000
winning sugar trade, he may want to let the winner ride a little
longer, as pocketing the profit would not nearly double his trading
account, as it would the smaller-capitalized trader.
In
other words, don't be a greedy trader. There's an old trading
adage that says there is room for bulls and bears in the
marketplace, but pigs get slaughtered.
Let
me emphasize here there is nothing wrong with starting out with, or
keeping, a smaller-capitalized futures trading account. But I
strongly suggest that those smaller accounts use the very strictest
of money management.
There
are dozens of good futures and stock trading books available, and
most spend at least an entire chapter on money management.
Here
are just a few very general money-management guidelines:
-
For
smaller-capitalized traders, don't commit more than one-third of
your trading capital to one trade. For medium- and
larger-capitalized traders, you should not commit more than 10%
of your capital to one trade. The guideline here is, the larger
your trading account, the smaller your commitment should be to
one trade. In fact, some trading veterans suggest larger trading
accounts should not commit more than 3-5% of their capital to
one trade. Smaller-capitalized traders, by necessity, have to
commit a larger percentage of their capital to one trade.
However, these small-cap traders may want to trade options
(buying them, not selling them), as your risk is limited to the
price you pay for the option. Or, smaller-capitalized traders
may want to trade on the Mid-American Exchange, a division of
the Chicago Board of Trade that has smaller futures contract
sizes.
-
Use
tight protective stops in all your trades. Cut your losses
short and let the winners ride the trend.
-
Never,
never, never add to a losing position.
-
Your
risk-reward ratio in a futures trade should be at least three to
one. In other words, if your risk of loss is $1,000, your profit
potential should be at least $3,000.
I
can't stress enough that survival in the futures trading arena
(especially for beginners) should be your top priority. Those of you
who have read my educational articles know that I'm a very
conservative futures trader. I love to trade, but I'm not a rich
man. With kids in high school and college, I certainly have to
practice what I preach! I do produce a bi-weekly newsletter that
spots potential trading opportunities in U.S. futures markets. I'd
like you to check out some of the samples on this site. If you like
what you see, you can subscribe to it here and now with our
hassle-free online service!
Jim Wyckoff is the chief technical and market analyst for FutureSource.
Phone: 319.277.8643
Email: jim@jimwyckoff.com
Website: www.jimwychoff.com |