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Those
who have read my features know I base the vast majority of my
trading decisions on technical indicators and chart analysis--and
also on market psychology. However, I do not ignore certain
fundamentals that could impact the markets I'm trading. Neither
should you.
In
this feature I'd like to share with you the types of fundamentals in
various markets about which technically oriented traders should be
aware. While this article will be most beneficial to beginning and
intermediate traders, the experienced traders may enjoy it as a
"refresher."
I've
told my readers many times that I have been very fortunate in my
career in the futures industry. When I was a reporter and editor for
FWN, I was forced to learn about the fundamentals impacting all the
markets I covered. (At one time or another, I covered every futures
market traded in the U.S., and also many overseas futures markets.)
I had to talk to traders and analysts every day, regarding the
fundamentals that impacted the particular market on which I was
reporting.
Realizing
very few get that kind of unique opportunity to learn about market
fundamentals, what can beginning to intermediate traders do to
"get up to speed" regarding the fundamentals of the
markets they wish to trade?
Here
are some useful nuggets to consider regarding market fundamentals:
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You
should know in what increments your market trades, the contract
size, if it's physically deliverable, cash settled or both, and
when first-notice day and last trading day occur. This
information is all free and available on the websites of the
exchanges on which the markets trade. For example, if you trade
U.S. T-bonds, you should know that prices trade in 32nds of a
point, based on a yield of 6%. You don't have to become an
expert on yields, deliveries or notices, but you should be aware
of the concepts. Reading about what the exchanges have to say
about their markets is a great way to start out learning
fundamentals.
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The
Internet is indeed a wonderful tool to help you learn about
futures market fundamentals--for free. Use your favorite search
engine and do a search on your market of interest. However, make
sure you use "futures" in the search words, as this
will narrow the focus of the search engine.
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Here's
a caveat on market fundamentals: The professional traders
anticipate them and many times factor the fundamentals into
price even before they occur. In fact, this happens quite
often in futures markets. For example, it stands to reason that
heating oil demand will increase in late fall and winter, and
that heating oil futures prices should rise in that timeframe,
as opposed to summertime prices. A novice trader may think it's
a no-brainer to go long the December heating oil contract in
September. However, keep in mind all the professional traders
and commercial traders know this, and they have likely already
factored this seasonal fundamental into the price of the
December contract.
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There
are U.S. government economic reports that sometimes have a
significant impact on markets. Associations also release reports
that impact futures markets. Even private analysts' estimates
can move markets. Try to learn about the reports or estimates
that have the potential to impact the market you wish to trade.
You should make it a priority to know, in advance, the release
of any scheduled report or forecast that has the potential to
move your market. For example, if you are thinking about
establishing a position in the T-Bond market and the U.S.
employment report is due out the next day, you may want to wait
until the report is released before entering your position. The
employment report can whipsaw the bond market in the minutes
after it's released, which could stop you out of your position.
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If
you like to trade financial futures markets, newspapers like the
Wall Street Journal and Investors Business Daily have sections
that follow bonds, stock indexes and currencies, etc. Reading
about how fundamental events impact these markets allows you to
get up to speed on fundamentals.
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If
you trade commodities like cotton, coffee or cocoa, it's a
little more difficult to find fundamental news sources for free.
You
may want to subscribe to a news service like Bridge, where
specialized reporters scour the world for news that impacts those
markets. The U.S. Department of Agriculture has a website with
reports on many commodities that trade in futures markets, including
not only the major U.S. row crops, but also markets like coffee and
orange juice.
Finally,
traders should consider the knowledge of market fundamentals as just
one more tool in their trading toolbox. The more tools in a trader's
toolbox, the higher the odds he or she will be a successful trader.
Jim Wyckoff is the chief technical and market analyst for FutureSource.
Phone: 319.277.8643
Email: jim@jimwyckoff.com
Website: www.jimwychoff.com
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