I've
had many readers ask me whether purchasing a trading system for
several hundred or even a few thousand dollars is worth the
investment. When I say "trading system," I mean some type
of mechanical trading system that usually requires one to be
"in the market" (either long or short) all or much of the
time--or, some specific trading method a trader has devised and
deems profitable. My answer to these readers is: While some
trading systems or specific methods may (or may not) be useful or
profitable, why not spend that kind of money, or less, and attend a
quality trading seminar or workshop. Attending a trading seminar or
trading workshop allows you to hear some of the best traders and
trading educators in the world share their knowledge. Furthermore,
the smaller trading workshops allow you to not only learn from the
trading instructor, but also likely learn something from your peers
who are also attending the workshop.
I've
attended many trading seminars and workshops over the years, and
I've found the best seminars to be the Technical Analysis Group
(TAG) seminars, which are now sponsored by INO.com.
These annual seminars are usually held each fall at some major city
in the U.S. In October of this year, the TAG conference was held in
Dallas, Texas. The cost of these seminars is around $700 per person.
From 15 to 20 of the most respected traders and trading educators in
the world give lectures at the conference. And, attendees get a big
fat notebook filled with all the featured speakers' presentations,
in case an attendee can't make it to all of them. I'm not getting
paid to "plug" the TAG conference. I just want to point
out to you what I have found to be the best trading seminar around.
One
should never stop striving to learn more about markets and trading.
The more knowledge a trader can attain, the better his or her
chances for trading success. A couple weeks ago, my good friend Glen
Ring asked me to attend one of his intensive three-day trading
workshops. Glen is a trading and trader education master. His
website is www.glenring.com.
Glen has taught me much about markets, trading and the psychology of
trading. I want to share with you some of the things the
workshop touched upon--without giving away any of the specific
trading methods Glen discussed at his workshop.
Here
are a couple "nuggets" we discussed at the workshop that I
think will be beneficial to you:
-
There
are several components involved with successful trading. They
include spotting the trading opportunity, proper entry and exit
strategies and money management. Glen says (and I concur) that
the most important of the components I mentioned above are money
management and exit strategies. "Anybody can get into the
market, but it's the real pros who know when to get out,"
says Glen. Glen, too, advocates using fairly tight protective
stops when trading futures. He pointed out statistics in our
industry that underscore why "survival" in futures
trading is so important during a trader's first few months or
first couple years of trading. Glen said studies in the futures
industry show the average length of time a person stays in
the business of trading futures is nine months to one year. What
this very likely means is that the vast majority of beginning
futures traders start out in this business not using effective
money management or protective stops--and end up losing most or
all of their trading capital in a few short months. I can't
stress enough the survival mentality that all
traders--especially those with less experience--need to employ.
-
At
the workshop we also discussed how Elliott Wave Theory can be a
valuable trading tool. However, it is complicated and many
traders do not master the theory well enough to ever use it
effectively. I'll briefly discuss Elliott Wave Theory, but if
you want to learn more I'd suggest reading books dedicated to
this theory.
R.N.
Elliott discovered the wave theory in the 1930s. Elliott waves
describe the basic movement of stock or futures market prices. The
principle states that in general there will be five waves in a given
direction followed by usually what is termed and A-B-C correction,
or five waves in the opposite direction.
In
Wave One, the market makes its initial move upward. This is usually
caused by a relatively small number of traders that all of a sudden
feel the previous price of the market was cheap and therefore worth
buying, causing the price to go up. This is where bottom-pickers
come into the market.
In
Wave Two, the market is considered overvalued. At this point enough
people who were in the original wave consider the market overvalued
and take profits. This causes the market to go down. However, in
general the market will not make it to its previous lows before it
is considered cheap again and buyers will re-enter the market.
Wave
Three is usually the longest and strongest wave. More traders have
found out about the market; more traders want to be long the market
and they buy it for a higher and higher price. This wave usually
exceeds the tops created at the end of Wave One.
In
Wave Four, traders again take profits because the market is again
considered expensive. This wave tends to be weak because there are
usually more traders that are still bullish the market, and after
some profit taking comes Wave Five.
Wave
Five is the point most traders get long the market, and the market
is now mostly driven by emotion. Traders will come up with lots of
reasons to buy the market and won't listen to reasons not to buy it.
At this point, contrarian thinkers will probably notice the market
has very little negative news and start shorting the market. At this
point the market becomes the most overpriced.
At
this point in time, the market will move into one of two patterns,
either an A-B-C correction or starting over with Wave One. An A-B-C
correction is when the market will go down/up/down in preparing for
another five-wave cycle.
I
am not an Elliott Wave expert, but I do believe there is merit to
the tenets of the theory. Importantly, the tenets of the wave show
us how much human psychology plays a part in the way traders trade
and the way markets move.
Jim Wyckoff is the chief technical and market analyst for FutureSource.
Phone: 319.277.8643
Email: jim@jimwyckoff.com
Website: www.jimwychoff.com |