I
have discussed in past articles how volume and open interest can be
used to help identify and confirm market situations and trading
opportunities. I'll take open interest one step farther in this
column by examining the Commitments of Traders (C.O.T.) report,
issued by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC).
The
C.O.T. report is released bi-weekly--every other Friday afternoon.
There is also a C.O.T. report issued on the following Mondays that
includes futures and options data. However, this report is not as
closely followed as the Friday afternoon report that covers only
futures, because the combined futures and options report has less
history.
The
CFTC requires futures traders and hedgers who hold market positions
larger than the CFTC's required reporting levels to report their
positions on a daily basis. This is how the C.O.T. report is
derived.
The
C.O.T. report breaks down by open interest large trader positions
into "Commercial" and "Non-Commercial"
categories. Commercial traders are required to register with the
CFTC by showing a related cash business for which futures are used
as a hedge. The Non-Commercial category is comprised of large
speculators--namely the commodity funds. The balance of open
interest is qualified under the "Non-reportable"
classification that includes both small commercial hedgers and small
speculators.
What
is most important for the individual trader (you) to examine in the
reports is the actual positions of the categories of
traders--specifically the net position changes from the prior
report. To derive the net trader position for each category,
subtract the short contracts from the long contracts. A positive
result indicates a net-long position (more longs than shorts). A
negative result indicates a net-short position (more shorts than
longs).
Now,
if I've got many of you lost at this point, DON'T WORRY. I've got
some suggestions later on that allow you to look at some examples of
reports on other websites. What I'm trying to do at this point is
familiarize you with the general basis of the report, related
terminology and how traders use the C.O.T. report. This stuff will
sink in--it just takes a little while.
My
friend, Steve Briese, is the world's foremost expert on C.O.T. data.
He publishes the "Bullish Review," which comes out right
after each C.O.T. report. It is from conversations with Steve
through the years and reading some of his material that I have
learned about the C.O.T. report and its value to traders.
The
most important aspect of the C.O.T. report for most traders is the
change in net positions of the commercial hedgers. Why? Because
studies show that commercials hold a superior record to other
trading groups in forecasting significant market moves. The large
commercials are generally believed to have the best fundamental
supply and demand information on their markets, and thus position
their trades accordingly. Along with the advantage of having the
best fundamental supply and demand information on their markets,
large commercials also trade large size, which in itself moves
markets in their favor. It's important here to note that whether a
particular trader group is net long or net short is not important to
analyzing the C.O.T. report. For example, commercials in silver are
the producers and they have never been net long, because they hedge
their sales. In gold, however, the commercial mix is more heavily
weighted toward fabricators who buy long contracts as a hedge
against future inventory needs. So, again you need to look at the
net change in positions from the previous report or several of the
recent reports.
Individual
traders that consider positioning themselves on the same side of the
market as large commercials, when the large commercials become
one-sided in their market view, is the best way to utilize the C.O.T.
report.
Some
traders do like to take the opposite sides of the trades on which
the small trader in the C.O.T. reports are shown taking. This is
because most small speculative traders of futures markets are
usually under-capitalized and/or on the wrong side of the market.
Also,
some traders will also follow the coat-tails of the large
speculators, thinking the large specs must be good traders or they
would not be in the large trader category.
Briese
says that contrary to what some believe, divergences from seasonal
open interest averages in C.O.T. report data are not reliable
trading indicators. This is even true with agricultural markets,
where one would suspect that hedging is a seasonal consideration.
For
more information on the C.O.T. reports, check out the Internet
websites www.bullishreview.com
or www.cftc.gov/dea/cot.html.
The sites should provide real examples of past reports.
Jim Wyckoff is the chief technical and market analyst for FutureSource.
Phone: 319.277.8643
Email: jim@jimwyckoff.com
Website: www.jimwychoff.com
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